Wired Magazine - Issue 15.7

Climate Change-Hurricane Debate Too Close
to Call, Author Says

Josh McHugh - 06.26.07 2:00 AM

Chris Mooney never expected to give props to climatologists beloved by right-wing policymakers. After all, his 2005 book, The Republican War on Science, was a thorough indictment of the GOP's dopey campaign to discredit the scientific work being done on everything from climate change to evolution. So when he started the research for his latest, Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming, he assumed it would be another takedown of the Bushies. Mooney grew up in New Orleans, and after Katrina, he figured he'd just add hurricanes to the list of charges. But in his quest to link increased storms to global warming, he encountered a surprisingly tangled debate. "There's a wide range of respectable positions here," he says. "In the end, I had to write a completely different book."

Is our mishandling of the environment to blame for the well-documented increase in the frequency and severity of hurricanes? The answer is unclear. On one hand, you've got a band of climate modelers, led by MIT's Kerry Emanuel, who argue that global warming is making hurricanes more numerous and powerful. On the other, William "Mr. Hurricane" Gray of Colorado State and Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center say the historical data proves that the current hurricane boom is a result of a natural warming and cooling cycle and will subside in a decade or two.

Mooney likens the debate to the arguments over global warming 15 years ago and says it's too early to take sides. "You can't just write off scientists like Gray and Landsea," he says. "But no matter who's right, we have a lot to be worried about. Everyone agrees hurricanes are getting worse, yet people still keep moving to the most exposed coastal areas." If you're in New York, Miami, Houston, Tampa, or even Wilmington, North Carolina, pay attention: Gray's team is predicting 17 named Atlantic storms this year — nine of them hurricanes, five with winds of 111 mph or higher. Tape up those windows.

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